Japan’s tourism trade is dealing with an surprising downturn from Hong Kong and different Asian markets because of the widespread circulation of an unfounded rumor predicting a catastrophic catastrophe in Japan on July 5, 2025. Despite repeated scientific clarifications debunking the declare, anxiousness fueled by social media and on-line influencers has severely impacted journey plans, main airways to chop again on flights and tourism companies to scramble for options.
Rumor Origin and Spread
The false prediction originated from interpretations of a Japanese manga story that portrayed Japan being struck by a large tsunami. This fictional situation was amplified by YouTubers and influencers, gaining extraordinary traction particularly in Hong Kong. The scenario was exacerbated by native cultural sensitivities to feng shui predictions and up to date real-world occasions — together with updates to Japan’s Nankai Trough Earthquake Damage Estimates and a serious earthquake in Myanmar — which heightened public fears.
Social media platforms accelerated the rumor’s unfold:
- NHK’s evaluation revealed that over 1,400 movies associated to the “July 2025” prediction had amassed greater than 100 million views on YouTube.
- TikTok hosted over 50 associated movies, collectively seen greater than 40 million instances.
- In Chinese-speaking areas, particularly Hong Kong and Taiwan, over 220 Chinese-language movies additional magnified the anxiousness, surpassing 52 million views.
Adding to the alarm, China’s Embassy in Tokyo issued a discover advising vacationers to train warning, a transfer interpreted by some Hong Kong media as validation of the false rumor.
Impact on Tourism and Airlines
The tangible results on Japan’s inbound tourism from Hong Kong have been stark:
- Airlines like Greater Bay Airlines and Hong Kong Airlines are slashing companies.
- Tokushima’s newly inaugurated flights from Hong Kong, launched in late 2023 with hopes of boosting regional tourism, will probably be lowered to 2 weekly flights beginning May 2025.
- Flights to Sendai, Fukuoka, and Sapporo may also see cuts.
- Hong Kong journey companies report that bookings for Japan journeys throughout summer time 2025 have collapsed to almost half of 2024 ranges.
- Alternative locations like Thailand, Taiwan, Australia, and Dubai are reportedly selecting up the diverted vacationer demand.
The development is notable given Japan’s earlier standing as the highest worldwide journey vacation spot for Hong Kong residents. In 2023, roughly 2.68 million Hong Kongers visited Japan — representing a couple of third of Hong Kong’s complete inhabitants — setting an all-time file.
Public Reaction
Interviews with Hong Kong vacationers at Japanese airports revealed constant themes of unease:
- A 30-something couple expressed plans to delay Japan journey till after July.
- A feminine vacationer in her 30s mentioned she would journey to Thailand as an alternative of Japan this summer time out of warning.
- A frequent traveler couple of their 50s determined to droop their standard journeys to Japan after being influenced by the rumor-laden social media panorama.
Many cited not solely the catastrophe prediction itself however a broader worry of experiencing earthquakes — a comparatively unfamiliar phenomenon in Hong Kong.
Scientific Community’s Response
Japan’s Meteorological Agency firmly reiterated that, based mostly on present science, it’s inconceivable to foretell the precise date, time, or location of an earthquake or volcanic eruption. Experts like Professor Naoya Sekiya from the University of Tokyo harassed that such rumors are a part of a historic sample of unscientific catastrophe myths, likening it to the notorious “Nostradamus prophecy” and the “2012 Mayan calendar” scare.
Sekiya emphasised that preparedness, not panic, ought to be the general public’s focus:
“Even if a disaster occurs in July, it would not validate these predictions. Disasters are inherently unpredictable. We must work toward creating a resilient society that can confidently say, ‘Even if something happens, we are ready.’”
Broader Concerns
With false rumors now being disseminated internationally at unprecedented speeds because of SNS platforms like YouTube and TikTok, the Japanese authorities and tourism trade face the twin problem of combating misinformation and reassuring potential guests.
The Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) is intently monitoring developments, noting a 9.9% drop in March 2025 in vacationer arrivals from Hong Kong in comparison with the earlier yr, although a part of that decline is attributed to a shift in Hong Kong’s vacation schedule.
Tour operators in Hong Kong are taking extraordinary measures to win again vacationers, together with providing free youngsters’s fares and full refunds for journeys canceled as a result of earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5. Nevertheless, considerations linger that the reputational harm may forged a shadow over Japan’s 2025 inbound tourism efficiency nicely into the autumn season.