Rattled by Trump, U.S. allies eye Japan’s greatest arms opening since WW2

Japan’s imminent easing of arms export guidelines has sparked sturdy curiosity from Warsaw to Manila, Reuters reporting discovered, as President Donald Trump wavers on safety commitments to allies and the wars in Iran and Ukraine pressure U.S. weapons provides.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling occasion accredited the modifications this week as she tries to invigorate the pacifist nation’s navy industrial base. Her authorities will formally ‌undertake the brand new guidelines as quickly as this month, three Japanese authorities officers informed Reuters.

Despite largely isolating itself from international arms markets since World War II, Japan spends sufficient by itself navy – $60 billion this yr – to maintain a sizeable protection {industry} able to manufacturing superior techniques like submarines and fighter jets.

Among the potential new prospects are the Polish navy and the Philippine navy, that are present process modernization amid regional safety challenges, in response to Reuters interviews with Japanese officers and international diplomats in Tokyo. Defence contractors Toshiba and Mitsubishi Electric are hiring workers ‌and including capability to capitalize on demand, their executives stated, offering beforehand unreported particulars.

One of the primary offers Takaichi’s authorities will seemingly approve are exports of used frigates to ⁠the Philippines, which is locked in maritime confrontation with Beijing within the South China Sea, in response to two of the Japanese officers. The seemingly sale could also be adopted by ⁠missile protection techniques, the officers stated.

Warsaw and Tokyo can assist plug gaps in one another’s arsenals, cooperating in areas like anti-drone and digital warfare techniques, stated Mariusz Boguszewski, deputy chief of mission at Poland’s embassy in Japan.

“There are some ‌bottlenecks that we can overcome having Japan on board,” he added, with out offering particulars of particular offers. Poland’s WB Group, one in every of Europe’s largest personal protection contractors, final yr signed a tentative drone cope with Japanese plane maker ShinMaywa.

Three different ⁠European diplomats stated Japan’s easing offered an opportunity to minimize their heavy dependence on U.S. weapons manufacturing, which is strained by conflicts. Trump’s ⁠unpredictability, akin to his threats to go away the NATO safety alliance and invade Greenland, have additionally heightened the push to diversify, in response to the diplomats, who requested anonymity to debate delicate issues.

“Offers are coming from everywhere,” stated Masahiko Arai, senior vp at Mitsubishi Electric’s protection unit, which has been including workers in London and Singapore to facilitate protection exports.

Takaichi’s workplace declined to reply particular questions for this story, as an alternative referring Reuters to a February 20 speech the place she stated she was reviewing the controls to bolster Japan’s protection manufacturing and strengthen capabilities of allies.

Tokyo’s export overhaul has beforehand been inspired by successive U.S. administrations, ⁠together with Trump’s, longing for allies to contribute extra to collective protection efforts.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly didn’t reply to questions from Reuters in regards to the modifications to Japanese coverage however stated that the 2 nations have been nearer than ever underneath Trump ⁠and Takaichi.

China’s international ministry didn’t instantly reply to questions on Japanese frigates doubtlessly ‌being despatched to the Philippines. Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning informed reporters in April that Beijing was involved about modifications in Tokyo’s arms export coverage and that it ought to “act prudently in military and security areas.”

The Philippines defence ministry declined to remark.

RISKY BUSINESS?

Japan’s first steps to chill out the foundations started greater than a decade in the past when Takaichi’s mentor, the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, eased a near-blanket ban on exports to encourage joint arms growth with allies that will assist counter China’s rising navy would possibly.

The push largely stalled, nonetheless, as many restrictions – together with on deadly tools – remained. Companies continued to draw back from abroad defence gross sales.

Buoyed by a bumper election win and shorn of the longtime coalition associate that had opposed extra radical change, Takaichi hopes ‌the newest easing will nudge arms makers so as to add the manufacturing capability Japan wants for a significant navy buildup.

Some Japanese protection companies say they’re able to pivot.

Air defence techniques builder Toshiba informed Reuters it plans to rent about 500 folks over the following three years and is setting up new testing and manufacturing services. It has additionally established a brand new division to deal with protection exports.

“Reputational risk is not what it used to be,” stated Kenji Kobayashi, vp in Toshiba’s protection division.

Some huge Japanese manufacturers which have sidelines in defence tools and in addition make client items have expressed issues that arms gross sales will postpone their broader vary of consumers.

“Rather than worrying about that, we focus on fulfilling our role and growing the business,” Kobayashi stated.

A recruitment itemizing reviewed by Reuters from Mitsubishi Electric – whose merchandise embrace fridges and missiles – exhibits the agency is hiring for an abroad gross sales function overlaying fighter plane and different navy exports.

Demand for completed techniques is strongest in Asia, whereas Europe, Australia and the United States supply markets for parts and co-development of recent merchandise, stated Arai, the Mitsubishi Electric protection government.

He expects general gross sales at his unit, together with home and worldwide, to extend by 50% to 600 ​billion yen ($3.8 billion) by 2031.

There stays a niche between the political messaging and the insurance policies of some corporations, nonetheless, stated Latvia’s envoy to Japan, Zigmars Zilgalvis.

He gave the instance of carmaker Toyota, whose subsidiary turned down an tried buy of engines and associated components by Latvian agency VR Cars for a navy utility automobile in 2023.

The Latvian mission had tried to assist dealer the failed sale, Zilgalvis stated.

Toyota Customising & Development stated in response to Reuters questions ‌that it couldn’t accommodate the request for navy automobiles “based on our business scope and policy.” It declined to touch upon the upcoming revisions to Japan’s arms export coverage.

VR Cars stated it revered the choice.

While Tokyo is anticipated to take care of strict controls on sending arms to battle zones, even Ukraine has sensed a possibility.

Kyiv’s chamber of commerce in Tokyo will quickly launch a brand new {industry} group of Ukrainian and Japanese drone companies to spur growth of recent applied sciences, timed to coincide with the rule modifications, its head Kateryna Yavorska completely informed Reuters.

An idea mannequin of the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP)’s fighter jet is displayed in the course of the Defense Security Equipment International (DSEI) Japan at Makuhari Messe in Chiba in 2025. Image: Reuters/Kim Kyung-Hoon

EMERGING FROM WORLD ‌WAR II ‘TIMEOUT’

The U.S. has lengthy dominated international navy provide chains. It accounted for 95% of Japan’s protection imports, 85% of Australian and British purchases and 77% of Saudi Arabian buys between 2021-2025, in response to a March report by ⁠the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) think-tank.

But Washington’s international navy gross sales program, usually blamed ⁠for late deliveries and rising prices, and its tight management over protection applied sciences has lengthy been a supply ​of frustration, officers and analysts stated.

One goal of Japan’s rule modifications is to construct protection provide chains in Asia that don’t depend on the United States, stated a ruling occasion official concerned in drafting safety coverage.

Neighboring ⁠South Korea presents one thing of a blueprint: It has change into the most important protection provider ‌to Poland and the Philippines after regular progress during the last 5 years, SIPRI knowledge exhibits.

But the potential for Japan – the world’s fourth largest economic system – is larger.

Even with ​the curbs, Japan’s arms {industry} is on a par with South Korea, Germany, Italy and Israel, and practically twice the dimensions of India’s, in response to SIPRI’s evaluation of main protection contractor revenues in 2024. The U.S. arms {industry}, nonetheless, is 25 instances greater.

“Japan has been kind of in the timeout box because of World War II, frankly. But they were inevitably going to swing closer toward the center of global politics,” stated Andrew Koch, founding father of Nexus Pacific, a Tokyo-based defense-industry advisory.

© Thomson Reuters 2026.