The Middle East is as soon as once more within the worldwide news and the scene of a collection of main geopolitical occasions which might be redrawing the map of the Arab world and the MENA area. We are certainly witnessing adjustments that started in 2022 with the struggle in Ukraine and nicely earlier than in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea.
This led me to revisit the textual content of a convention I had given within the 90s on the IEP of the University of Toulouse le Mirail and to reread founding works of the geopolitics of the Arab regional system, together with that of R W McDonald on the Arab League and the inter-Arab Cold War relationship from 1965, that of Ali Eddin Hilal on the Arab regional system, in addition to the quantitative evaluation of inter-Arab conflicts by Ahmed Youssef Ahmed and the research by Ahmed Ali Salem on collective safety within the Arab League, whereas updating the databases used on this work.
The evaluation of the info collected clearly demonstrates that the Arab world has entered a brand new part since not solely has the middle of gravity of the system shifted from the Mashreq to the Arabian Peninsula, however above all of the ideology of pan-Arabism has given technique to geopolitical and sectarian rivalries; three international locations stand out from the group, this time Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have change into the structuring poles of a contest that’s now financial in addition to strategic, and above all intra-state conflicts (civil wars, fragmentation, collapse of establishments) have supplanted the inter-state conflicts that structured the earlier interval.
More than ever, the Arab world is given over to non-Arab overseas interventions and non-state proxies manipulated from the surface, whereas the League of Arab States, whose institutional structure displays the Westphalian order, is paralyzed by the demand for unanimity, seeing its resolutions decreased to pious needs within the face of the facility of exterior actors.
An evaluation of makes an attempt to create a joint Arab drive since 2011 reveals the persistent obstacles on the way in which to a real collective safety structure, main states to desert the ambition of an built-in defence in favour of particular person methods and versatile coalitions.
Indeed, for the reason that Arab Spring in 2011, now we have been witnessing a revitalization of regional army cooperation to create a joint Arab drive, the obstacles encountered and the mandatory circumstances for the institution of a collective safety structure have actually not all been met, however Iran’s latest aggression towards the GCC international locations will speed up the reconstruction of the widespread protection coverage.
The Arab world, as soon as the topic of its historical past, has change into the thing of rivalries between exterior powers. Foreign penetration – Iranian, Russian, American, Turkish, Chinese, Indian – has reached an unprecedented degree, whereas non-state actors (militias, politico-religious actions, armed teams) have change into the privileged vectors of this exterior affect. In this context, the League of Arab States, whose institutional structure is basically flawed by the requirement of unanimity, a rule that contrasts sharply with the two-thirds majority required on the OAS and the previous OAU, has seen its position decreased to a trickle.
Let us recall for historical past that the Arab regional system was virtually below Egyptian affect till the Six-Day War of 1967, the Arab League, whose headquarters are in Cairo, has been led since its creation by Egyptian secretaries-general. This Egyptian centrality shouldn’t be solely institutional, additionally it is political and symbolic. Cairo is the guts of the Arab world, the place the place compromises are negotiated, the place alliances are sealed.
However, as early because the Seventies, the Gulf states started to construct relative autonomy; they change into the “financial backers” of the states of the confrontation line (Egypt, Syria, Jordan). They developed a definite “Khaliji” id, inspired on this by the Western powers anxious to separate them from the conflictual dynamics of the Mashreq.
The limits of Arab collective safety
The research of collective safety within the Arab League presents a vital evaluation of the institutional mechanisms of Arab collective safety is revealing; with an intervention charge of solely 24 p.c and a hit charge of 20 p.c in 18 inter-Arab conflicts between 1946 and 1990, the League has the bottom report of the 4 collective safety organizations examined—far behind the Organization of American States (OAS) with its 63 p.c intervention and 37 p.c success charge. and even behind the African Union (previously OAU) with its 31% intervention and 23% success charge (Mark W. Zacher International Conflicts and Collective Security, 1946-77, the United Nations, Organization of American States, Organization of African Unity, and Arab League).
The League’s elementary weak point is its requirement for unanimity in any decision regarding an armed battle; this requirement signifies that a member state can veto any motion, rendering the group just about impotent within the face of the inter-coalition conflicts that dominate Arab politics.
Only three crises within the historical past of the League have led to collective safety motion: the civil struggle in Yemen (1962-1967) the place intervention happened solely after Egypt had voluntarily determined to withdraw its troops, the intervention towards Iraqi threats towards Kuwait in 1961 and the disaster of 1990 when Saddam Hussein ordered the invasion of Kuwait.
All three instances display that Arab collective safety solely works when normative consensus aligns with the pursuits of essentially the most highly effective states. When norms come into battle (sovereignty versus anti-intervention in 1990) or when energy is simply too evenly distributed, the League’s institutional weaknesses – particularly the requirement for unanimity – make it largely impotent on this sovereign area.
Despite these weaknesses, the Arab League had the advantage of performing when conflicts have an effect on territorial integrity, the one actual normative consensus within the inter-Arab system. The 4 territorial conflicts (Sudan-Egypt 1958, Iraq-Kuwait 1961, and Iraq-Kuwait 1973, partly in Sand struggle) have all been resolved kind of efficiently, both by the direct intervention of the League or by co-management of crises with one other IO such because the OAU (as was the case with the Sands War between Algeria and Morocco in 1963), or by diplomatic strain from member states.
The failure of Arab NATO and the emergence of other methods
The mission of an “Arab NATO” has come up towards insurmountable structural obstacles, pushing the states of the area to desert the ambition of a typical defence in favour of particular person methods and versatile coalitions.
The ambition to create a Joint Arab Force has been postponed indefinitely as a result of an absence of diplomatic consensus and irreconcilable strategic visions. Several international locations feared that this drive would serve hegemonic pursuits or intervene within the inside affairs of member states.
At the guts of this impasse is a structural lack of belief and jealous safety of nationwide sovereignty. Arab chiefs of workers have traditionally been reluctant to put their troops below overseas command, particularly for the reason that risk is commonly perceived in a different way from one capital to a different (Iran, Israel or terrorism). Moreover, the shortage of a typical definition of terrorism – particularly with regard to the Muslim Brotherhood – has made any unified army doctrine not possible.
The emergence of pragmatic options
Faced with the impotence of everlasting collective safety, the Arab States, and particularly these of the Gulf, have adopted adaptive and diversified approaches to ensure their survival:
Hedging: Countries resembling Oman and Qatar reject the logic of blocs and preserve balanced relations with rival powers (the United States, Iran, Turkey) to protect their autonomy.
Bandwagoning: Conversely, Bahrain aligns itself carefully with main powers resembling Saudi Arabia or the United States to acquire direct safety ensures.
Ad hoc coalitions: Instead of a standing military, states now favor momentary alliances shaped for particular threats, such because the intervention in Yemen in 2015 or the battle towards the Islamic State. These buildings are thought of extra versatile and fewer threatening to sovereignty.
Internationalization and normalization: Security now depends on alliances with Western powers (notably the United States) and, extra lately, on strategic recalibration through the Abraham Accords as a counterweight to Iranian affect.
Internal resilience: States are specializing in strengthening their very own stability via long-term nationwide visions (Visions 2030, 2035, 2040) and modernising their autonomous defensive capabilities, together with air capabilities.
In sum, safety within the Arab world has shifted from a great of widespread drive to a system of variable geometry, the place mediating diplomacy and worldwide partnerships take priority over the creation of a unified Arab army structure.
Strategic dependence and the bounds of army autonomy
Convinced that the US administration below Obama and Biden would not be a dependable guarantor, pivoting in the direction of the Pacific to include China, the three Gulf monarchies – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have, since 2011, significantly elevated their army capabilities, multiplied partnerships with non-traditional suppliers, revisited army governance, created struggle colleges to coach their very own workers, and diversified their partnerships in the direction of China, Russia and Turkey.
On the societal degree, this quest for autonomy has been accompanied by an unprecedented militarization: conscription, memorials to “martyrs”, army parades and movies glorifying the sacrifice of troopers, all instruments geared toward forging a brand new nationwide id based mostly on responsibility moderately than oil revenues. (Jean Loup SAMAAN, New army methods within the Gulf 2023).
Diversification of partnerships: a hedging with apparent limits
Several Arab and Asian international locations have diversified their partnerships with different arms suppliers (China, Russia, India, Brazil, Turkey, and so forth.). We are shopping for an increasing number of Turkish drones, Chinese drones, Russian Kornet missiles, Chinese SY-400 and S-400 ballistic missiles whereas receiving batteries and anti-missile shields from the Pentagon. This diversification technique has not decreased their elementary dependence on the West. These international locations observe a coverage of optimistic neutralism pricey to Nasser by avoiding selecting between the good powers, preserving their relations with the hegemon in place, the United States, and the challengers, China and Russia.
However, it’s clear that Western and particularly American suppliers eclipse these of China and Russia mixed; the qualitative hole is even better: the American Patriot batteries, the F-35s and the warships don’t have any Chinese or Russian equivalents that the Gulf forces might function successfully.
These new partnerships additionally create vulnerabilities as Chinese firms like Huawei, that are constructing 5G infrastructure throughout the Gulf, and even AI firms like Deepseek should adjust to China’s 2017 intelligence regulation that requires them to share overseas information with the Beijing authorities. In addition, Russian or Chinese protection programs might create interoperability issues and expose U.S. know-how to intelligence eternity. (Jean Loup SAMAAN, op cit).
However, this diversification of partnerships has not translated into strategic autonomy. As the evaluation of army dependencies exhibits, US arms gross sales to the Gulf dwarf these of China and Russia mixed.
The Arab League, a company in decline or in recomposition?
The Arab international locations are progressively turning away from the Arab League, typically preferring different boards, the OIC, the GCC, the BRICS, and even the AU or the CENCAD (the case of Libya), as a result of the weakening of the Arab League is hanging, it has change into inoperative on main points aside from just a few successes within the financial, social and cultural fields.
Several components clarify this weakening: first, the rise of creeping minilateralism and the proliferation of other boards – coalitions of some states sharing converging pursuits, which bypass conventional multilateral frameworks to behave extra flexibly and shortly. The Gulf Cooperation Council, the Arab Maghreb Union, and the Abraham Accords illustrate this tendency to favour small and efficient frameworks over establishments which might be too broad and too sluggish.
Secondly, the phenomenon of sub-systemic fragmentation into three sub-regions, three logics within the Maghreb, the Mashreq and the GCC, not counting the Horn of Africa, which signifies an virtually whole useful disconnection between the three main regional dynamics.
Secondly, the rising divergence of pursuits between Member States. The Gulf monarchies, which finance the League’s price range, not have the identical priorities because the Mashreq or Maghreb states. The former are involved with their financial growth, securing their investments, and managing their inside rivalries. The latter are searching for help within the face of their inside crises, monetary assist, and worldwide legitimacy.
Finally, overseas penetration has rendered the League much more powerless. How might an establishment that operates by consensus take a place on a battle wherein exterior powers are immediately concerned?
The primacy of economics: visions as geopolitics
Vision 2030 (Saudi Arabia) and Vision 2031 (Emirates), and different Emergence Plans introduced by different international locations to ramp up usually are not simply growth plans -they characterize competing regional models- whose confrontation will construction the Middle East for many years to return.
This financial competitors shouldn’t be a byproduct of geopolitics it’s geopolitics. Investment selections, commerce routes, logistics hubs, and free zones now operate as strategic weapons (that’s why Iran is now focusing on the Dubai airport Jbel Ali, vitality infrastructure in GCC).
In addition to those causes of decline, there are three realities that transcend them: the Arab world is not grasp of its future, handed over to overseas powers and their proxies.
– This system shouldn’t be chaos-it has its regularities, its balances, its implicit guidelines. It is a multiplex house the place a number of poles, versatile alliances, proxy wars and financial competitors coexist, with none power-Arab or foreign- having the ability to impose its will on the entire.
The absence of a real collective safety structure, highlighted by analyses of collective safety and army cooperation, worsens this case. The obstacles recognized—mutual mistrust, weak sovereignty, divergence of risk perceptions, lack of a middle, Core areas of power-remain as important in 2026 as they have been in 2015. The mission of a joint Arab drive has remained a lifeless letter. Ad hoc alliances are multiplying however don’t result in lasting integration. South-South partnerships, which might type the premise of a collective defence based mostly on deep cultural, spiritual and strategic affinities, stay under-exploited, victims of mutual distrust and rivalries for affect between Arab capitals.
The previous order-that of the Arab Cold War, of American unipolarity, of ideological blocs-is lifeless. The new order has not but been born. Between the 2, what might be referred to as a stagnant transition has been established: an area of transition that lasts, of everlasting uncertainty, of steady recomposition. It shouldn’t be a easy transition part, it could have change into a long-lasting state, a sui generis configuration.
References
- Ahmed Youssef Ahmed, Inter-Arab Conflicts 1945-1981: An Exploratory Study
- Ahmed Ali Salem, Collective Security within the Arab League: Between Realist and Constructivist Theories
- Ali Eddin Hilal, The Arab Regional System: A Study of Arab Political Relations
- Florence Gaub (2016) An Arab NATO within the Making? Middle Eastern Military Cooperation Since 2011. Letort Papers. Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College.
- Palik, Júlia; Anna Marie Obermeier & Siri Aas Rustad (2022) Conflict Trends within the Middle East, 1989-2021. PRIO Paper. Oslo: Peace Research Institute Oslo.
- Jean-Loup Samaan, New army methods within the Gulf the Mirage of Autonomy in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar
- Database (methodology of the event-driven evaluation of Edward Azar and Sloan)