Jack Dulgarian
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Dec 4 2025
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Hayat Tahir Al-Sham (HTS), the oncerecognizedterrorist group by the United States with Al Qaeda roots,sackedthe Bashar Al-Assad Government in Damascus, Syria by specific and overt help from Turkey. Since the autumn of the multi-generation Al-Assad Government, many questions stay on the way forward for Syria. One reply is discovered within the true champion of the Syrian Civil War, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan. For the primary time in a century, Turkey has returned as Syrias chief energy dealer. How did Turkey efficiently get rid of the final official Baathist authorities on the earth? President Erdoan revived an outdated Ottoman Strategy which proved profitable in Libya, Iraq, and most just lately in Syria.The Neo-Ottoman State-Client System has been meticulously carried out by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan to nice success. This system should be rigorously examined to be able to perceive how Turkey succeeded in its strategic ambitions in Syria, resulting in dominance over the complicated leviathan of competing pursuits and armed factions in Syria right this moment.
For many within the West, the fast collapse of Assads forces was a big occasion which strengthened the notion of Turkeys pressure posture and proxies within the area. However, many have neglected Turkeys profitable use of proxies for strategic ambitions since not less than 2016. It could come as a shock to some, butmercenary warfarehas re-emerged in lots of conflicts around the globe. Comparatively, Turkey embraces Turkic and/or Sunni Islamist proxy teams in a not too completely different technique of standard employed mercenaries. The Turkish mannequin is a genius creation of efficient networks to recruit and persuade small states, tribes, and ethnic teams to take part in navy operations. One of the perfect blueprints for the Neo-Ottoman State-Client System was utilized between the Ottoman Empire andCrimean Tartar-Khansin the late 1400s.
Though the Tatar-Khans discovered themselves in suzerainty (restricted self-rule) underneath the Ottoman Empire, they have been handled extra as allies than topics. Rather than pay tribute by conventional funds resembling gold, the Tatar-Khans participated within the Ottoman ranks as cavalrymen and light-weight infantry. Yet, horses, weapons, and different tools was paid for by the Sultan. The Tartar-Khans performed an important function in securing the northern Black Sea Region, which regularly was used as a launch level for Slavic, Baltic, Romanian, and Western Kingdoms to assault the Ottomans. For many generations, this symbiotic relationship was an incredible success in not solely defending Ottoman lands, however utilized in expansionist campaigns together with deeper invasions into Europe. There are many different instances of victorious Ottoman but non-ethnically Turkish navy teams, such because the Albanians, or the traditional instance of the Janissaries underneath a system calledDevshirme, the follow of kidnapping Christian boys for conversion to Islam and warfare.
President Erdoans fashionable use of the mannequin has been profitable inLibyaand non-Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) Kurdishgroupsin Iraq. Yet above these, Turkeys vital function in the way forward for Syria represents the Neo-Ottoman State-Client Systems best success up to now. Under this mannequin, ethnic Turkish troops are far much less prone to die in battle if their proxies are those primarily participating in operations. Client teams even have very minimal worldwide recognition or legitimacy, whereby they’re expendable and might function within the gray zone of Turkish navy technique, immediately or not directly benefiting Ankara. Turkey can moreover experiment in techniques with its proxies and learn to win in fashionable standard wars. HTS and its new Syrian authorities have obtained great diplomatic help from Ankara. Previously through the Assad management of Damascus, the opposition Syrian Salivation Government was a political car for Turkish ambitions in overseas diplomacy.
Following the collapse, Turkey shortly labored to make sure worldwide rejection of the now exiled Assad Government and recognition of the reorganized Syrian transitional authorities the place HTS holds essentially the most authority over different Sunni Islamist teams. The two have additionally cooperated economically and socio-politically, Turkeysharesenergy with the northwest areas of Syria which was HTS authentic base of operations. In May, Ankara and the brand new Damascussigneda memorandum of understanding on vitality centered infrastructure and funding. In schooling, many Sunni Arab schoollessonsare in Turkish in areas held by HTS. Financially, Syrians in Damascus have at occasions proven apreferenceto use within the Turkish Lira over Syrian forex. All the whereas on the navy entrance, Turkey has supported HTS throughairstrikes, artillery, and different standard navy help. Do these drivers recommend that HTS and its management are solely managed by Turkey? Absolutely not. In this case, HTS has its personal ambitions, similar to everybody else in worldwide politics.
Since the chief of HTS Abu-Mohammed al-Jalwani traded his nom de guerre for a go well with and the title of Syrian President underneath the identify Ahmed al-Sharaa, he has fastidiously used diplomacy with Arab states and secured many Western powers to carry sanctions, which culminated in a November 2025visitto the White House. Diversification of commerce from the Arabian Peninsula, Africa, and the West will enable al-Sharaa extra flexibility from his Turkish dependence. However, for all of Syrias issues, al-Sharaa virtually definitely needs to revive legitimacy and authority inside Syrias historic borders. Al-Sharaas 2026 objectives together with full territorial sovereignty and financial independence will doubtless fall quick. Turkeys underperforming financial system could also be an amazing weak point, however in comparison with Damascus, Ankara is in an exponentially much better place to which Al-Sharaa can not ignore. Moreover, Turkey stays essentially the most succesful and handy arms supplier which HTS must retain energy over its allied challengers and adversaries. Turkey can be most succesful to coach and homogenize the brand new unified navy. HTS will virtually definitely depend on Turkey as a backchannel for navy deconfliction and diplomatic help with Israel, Russia and the U.S. as all three have troops inside Syrias historic borders. Not to say, HTS must navigatevarious safety issuessurrounding sectarian militias such because the Druze and way more radical Islamist teams disarmament or integration into a brand new unified Syrian military.
Yet, essentially the most urgent query of all is a flashpoint of competition between Turkey and HTS pertaining to the standing of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), that are supported by the U.S. Turkeys highest precedence for a lot of many years has been to get rid of the PKK, to which it views the SDF of the Autonomous Administrative Region of Northeastern Syria (AANES) as a harbinger of terror no completely different than the PKK. Since the Turkish imprisoned PKK founder Abdullah calan known as on his comrades toendthe rebel motion, there have been discussions on disarmament. This excited many within the West as if the second was the Japanese give up on the USS Missouri in1945. Yet there are not any HTS or its allies assuming full management of the northeastern cities of Syria. Al-Sharas males aren’t guardingIslamic State (IS) prisoners. U.S. troopers aren’t taking photograph ops with the SDF and HTS along with everybody shaking fingers. Erdoan and Al-Sharaa could have executed what many would suppose unattainable, however the Syria disaster is way from over, it’s merely coming into a brand new chapter.
With no finish in sight, subsequently, Syrias strategic image seems extra complicated than ever. Turkey will doubtless develop its navy footprint all through Al-Sharaas territory to proceed its strategic aims to get rid of Kurdish irredentism, safe vitality sources, and challenge energy in opposition to aperceived Israeli menace. The U.S. appears as if it is not going to stop help for the SDF regardless of diplomatically prioritizing Al-Sharaa, allowing the Kurds to retain de facto management over the northeast. Any battle between Al-Sharaas troopers and/or the Turkish navy in opposition to the Kurds leaves co-located American lives in distinctive hazard. In the south, Israel appears content material with the established order of Israeli Defense Forces positioned as abufferbetween Damascus and Israeli territory, to not point out, armed Druze as a third-party pressure multiplier curbing Al-Sharaa.Russiawas assessed by many Western analysts to depart Syria solely, however this concept was at all times removed from plausible. Tragically,AlawitesandChristianshave no-state backers, no substantial technique of defending themselves, and the civilians are on the mercy of the previous Al Qaeda Damascus chief to implement peace and levy sources to maintain non-Sunni Muslims secure assuming that is even a coverage.
Finally, too many unknown variables and wildcard situations exceed the scope of this evaluation if one other battle breaks out between Israel and Iran. Moreover, the identical logic applies if Turkish and Israeli troopers are killed by one another or proxies. While the longer term stays unsure in Syria, the Neo-Ottoman State-Client System has but once more succeeded and can proceed to be carried out. The mannequin notably influenced Turkeys ally, Azerbaijan, by navy reformations and operations in opposition to Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh). Indeed, Azerbaijan efficiently employed Syrian Turkmen asmercenaries(paying homage to Ottoman historical past by its identify, theSultan Murad Division), amongst different radical teams within the 2nd Nagorno-Karabakh War (44-Day War). The post-liberal world order has accelerated geopolitical complexities with substantial loss of life and destruction for numerous harmless lives of all ethnicities and religions. Is the U.S. ready for a brand new period in Syria and a return to the outdated methods of battle and geopolitics?
Further Reading on E-International Relations
- Opinion Beyond Neo-Ottomanism in Turkeys Syria Strategy
- Ottoman International Relations: A Research Agenda
- Turkeys Role in Syria: A Prototype of its Regional Policy within the Middle East
- Opinion Why Allowing Syria Back into the International Fold was the Right Decision
- Opinion Spains Request For NATO Coronavirus Aid: Will Turkey Answer?
- Opinion How the West Can Prepare for a Post-Erdogan Era in Turkey
About The Author(s)
Jack Dulgarianis a Washington, D.C.-based analyst and marketing consultant specializing in nationwide safety and protection with a give attention to the Near East, Eastern Europe, and nice energy competitors. Mr. Dulgarian has been referenced by National Defense Universitys Joint Quarterly Magazine and given lectures to the State Departments Foreign Service Institute. You can comply with him onSubstack.
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Ottoman International RelationsSyriaTurkey