Peter Chai
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Dec 19 2025
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When the U.S. occupied Japan from 1945 to 1952, it established army bases in Okinawa. When the occupation led to 1952, Japan allowed the U.S. to retain management of the prefecture. The U.S. continued to increase its army bases within the prefecture till its handover to Japan in 1972. Japan now hosts the biggest variety of U.S. army personnel overseas. Okinawa accounts for simply 0.6% of Japans land space and 1.1% of its inhabitants, but ithostsmore than 70% of all U.S. army services within the nation. Given this focus, Okinawa was assumed to have extra private interplay with the U.S. army and to profit economically from base-related actions. However, historical past has confirmed that neither social contact nor financial beneficial properties have translated into optimistic attitudes to the U.S. army. A posh mixture of factorsincluding legal incidents involving army personnel, environmental considerations resembling water, air, and noise pollutions, training-related incidents, a way of unfairness, and considerations about safety riskshas fueled native resentment.
Apublic opinion pollin 2023 revealed that 70% of respondents agreed that its unfair that U.S. army bases are concentrated in Okinawa, and 83% agreed that army bases in Okinawa Prefecture can be targets of an assault in an emergency. Astudybased on two surveys evaluating an Okinawan pattern with a nationwide pattern additionally exhibits that individuals in Okinawa categorical considerably extra unfavorable views towards the U.S. army.
In November 2025, avideoshowing U.S. army police in Okinawa slamming an American civilian to the bottom and attempting to handcuff him as he shouts that they haven’t any proper to the touch me went viral on-line. It raised considerations over the infringement of Japanese police authority exterior U.S. installations and the dangers of misidentifying civilians and vacationers. Under the JapanU.S. safety settlement, American army police could train authority solely over service members and their households underneath particular circumstances. Its authority doesn’t prolong to civilians, together with U.S. residents.
Since September 2025, U.S. army police has organized unilateral off-base patrols to implement a ban on consuming in native nightlife districts between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m. The transfer adopted severalsexual assault allegationsinvolving servicemen in 2024. The unilateral patrols have been suspended after the viral video surfaced. In whole,101 peoplewere arrested throughout 33 situations of unilateral off-base patrols and joint patrols with Japanese authorities. Sexual violence just isn’t a brand new challenge in Okinawa and has lengthy fueled the islands anti-base actions. According to the Okinawa Women Act Against Military Violence (OWAAMV),350 crimes, together with sexual violence, have been dedicated by U.S. personnel towards Okinawan ladies from 1945-2011. A recentanalysisof roughly 1,900 incidents recorded in Okinawa between 2005 and 2024 by the NHK discovered that almost 60% have been investigated as suspected sexual offenses, and that at the very least 14 of these circumstances weren’t clearly disclosed. From the beginning of 2025 by way of the top of September, U.S. army personnel in Okinawa have been concerned in 77 legal circumstances leading to arrests underneath Japans Penal Codealready surpassing the 2024 whole.
In 1995, the gang rape of an Okinawan elementary schoolgirl by three servicemen triggeredprotestsand prompted the U.S. to pledge the closure of the Futenma air base, situated in a densely populated space. The U.S. and Japan agreed to construct a substitute facility close to the distant city of Henoko. However, intercourse crimes involving U.S. army personnel didn’t finish with the 1995 scandal, and incidents have continued to be reported by the mediaevery few years, with some involving feminine minors. In some circumstances, native district prosecutors chosenot to indictthe servicemen, and because of the sturdy want to guard the respect and privateness of these concerned within the case, the explanations for his or her choices weren’t disclosed. Sometimes, incidents have been dealt with inside the army and didn’t seem in Japans official statistics. In 2024, greater than 25,00 individuals joined aprotestagainst sexual assaults by U.S. servicemen.
Anti-base activists have opposed the Henoko base, arguing that constructionpartly atop coral reefswouldpollutecoastal waters and destroy habitat for native wildlife. Years of anti-base protests and technical challenges have stalled the plan. As a end result, the Henoko base stays solely partially constructed, and Futenma base continues to function. In 2024, near 1,000 individuals joined aprotestagainst the restart of building for a army runway being constructed into Oura Bay. On the opposite hand, PFAS contamination close to U.S. army bases has been a significant environmental concern in Okinawa. Since 2016, the Okinawa prefectural authorities has requested 6on-site inspections, however the U.S. army has accepted solely twoboth tied to incidents it acknowledged together with a 2020 leak of 140,000 liters of firefighting foam at Futenma. In 2022, stories launched by an Okinawa civic group primarily based on check samples from 387 residents in 6 municipalities discovered that PFOS ranges as a lot as 3 times the nationwide common.
The contamination can also be tied to monetary burden. Between 2016 and 2024, the Okinawa prefectural authorities spent 3.2 billion yen on water testing and remedy. Prefectural officers estimate that managing PFAS over the following decade would require at the very least one other 8 billion yen. Water payments are more likely to enhance not solely resulting from inflation and ageing water gear but additionally resulting from the price of managing PFAS. This added monetary strain has deepened public frustration, compounding the well being considerations. Meanwhile, media has just lately reported that U.S. army automobiles have pushed on public roadswithout license plates, and parachutes utilized in coaching workouts havefallen into public areas, elevating public security considerations.
Japans first feminine prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, elected in October, is searching for toreviseJapans key safety paperwork, together with the National Security Strategy and lift Japans protection spending above 2% of GDP. She can also be contemplating torevisethe not allowing introduction clause of the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, probably involving extra U.S. army presence in Japan. Her recentremarkin the Diet suggesting {that a} potential Taiwan disaster might represent a survival-threatening scenario triggered sturdy protests and punitive measures from China, together with journey and research warnings, free flight cancellations and adjustments by airways, a suspension of Japanese seafood imports, and the cancellation of performances by Japanese artists.
In December, China deployed a lot of naval and coast guard vessels throughout East Asian watersat one pointexceeding 100 ships. On 6 December, a fighter jet launched from the Chinese plane provider Liaoning crusing over worldwide waters southeast of Okinawa Prefecturedirected its radartwice at Japan Self-Defense Force plane. Some observers have suspected that Takaichis comment on Taiwan could have been supposed to attract retaliation from China, heighten public consciousness of safety dangers, and put together the general public to just accept an enlargement of Japans protection capabilities.
A Yomiurisurveyin December discovered that greater than 60% of respondents agreed with increasing protection capabilities. A Sankeisurveyin November discovered that round 60% of respondents stated Takaichis comment on Taiwan was acceptable. However,NIMBY (Not In My Backyard)resistance from native residents and governments might gradual and even block new army installations. Although nationwide help for strengthening Japans protection posture and the U.S.Japan alliance stays excessive, many voters are unlikely to welcome army bases or superior weapons methods being put in close to their very own communities. Also, their help could wane following the governments current announcement that the elevated protection spending might be funded by way of anincome tax hikein 2027.
National sentiment and native opinion can diverge sharply over army installations, and native resistance stays a key supply of uncertainty for Takaichis plans to increase Japans protection capabilities, which can probably result in extra U.S. army involvement. It can be misguided for her to imagine that sturdy national-level help for protection enlargement and U.S.-Japan alliance will translate into minimal native resistance when new installations are proposed. Public opinion and historic expertise in Okinawawhere long-standing opposition is rooted in points resembling sexual crimes involving army personnel and environmental damageillustrate this dynamic clearly. Similar sensitivities exist in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the place survivors and their households, formed by the legacy of the atomic bombings, have a tendency to carry extra anti-militaristic views and present decrease help for army enlargement or the possession of nuclear weapons.
Further Reading on E-International Relations
- Opinion What a Stronger Japanese Military Posture Means for Okinawa
- Opinion Reassessing Military Misconceptions within the American-Japanese Alliance
- Opinion The US-Japan Alliance Continues to Stand for Democracy, Despite a Role Reversal
- Opinion Alliance Shock Revisited: What 1968-69 Means for 2025
- Opinion Toward a Japan-South Korea Alliance Less Reliant on the US
- Opinion Japans Military Awakening
About The Author(s)
Peter Chai(or Kai Shibata) is a Ph.D. Researcher on the Graduate School of Political Science, Waseda University, Tokyo. He holds a BA in Economics and MA in Political Science from Waseda University. His analysis areas are political sociology, comparative politics, and public opinion, with a give attention to East Asia.
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