Washington – Vietnam seems to be displaying indicators that it stays lukewarm to Xi Jinping’s ‘group of frequent future’ initiative, an angle specialists and longtime observers anticipate Hanoi will preserve through the Chinese chief’s go to this week.
In the newest instance of Hanoi’s angle, when Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong visited China in October, and when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was in Hanoi on December 1, China’s official state news company Xinhua quoted Chinese leaders as saying Vietnam ought to cooperate with China to construct a ‘group of shared future.’ The Vietnamese state-run press didn’t point out that in any respect.
As Vietnam seems to take care of a distance from China, some researchers and observers say Hanoi stays unsure about what the frequent future is likely to be.
“The most important issue is what exactly the ‘community of common destiny’ is,” stated Hoang Viet, a lecturer at Ho Chi Minh City University of Law.
‘It stays a imprecise idea. Secondly, Vietnam has said clearly … it doesn’t take sides. Vietnam has to suppose laborious concerning the ‘group of frequent future,’ as a result of taking part in it might be seen as taking sides or could make different international locations suppose that Vietnam is taking sides.”
Xi first proposed the concept of a community of common destiny in late 2012, based on a millennia-old Chinese vision of a world where people would live in perfect harmony and would be as dear to one another as family, according to a report from China’s Xinhua.
The report described Xi’s vision of a world where “our future lies within the fingers of all international locations – equally – and all nations ought to pursue dialogue reasonably than confrontation with each other, and forge partnerships as an alternative of alliances.”
But according to Nadege Rolland, a distinguished fellow of China studies at the National Bureau of Asian Research, Chinese leader Hu Jintao used the term in his October 2007 report to the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party “to explain the particular relationship between the mainland and Taiwan, implying that two politically totally different entities might have moderately good relations regardless of their dissimilarities.”
According to Rolland, Xi first used the term at the April 2013 Boao Forum as he underlined to the mostly Asian participants the need for common development.
Rolland wrote that the concept is inclusive, applies mostly to Asia and China’s neighbors, and has twin objectives of “frequent improvement” and “frequent safety,” that reflect Xi’s view that “improvement is the muse for safety, and safety is a situation for improvement.'”
She also wrote that because there’s no institutional structure, “the group resembles a casual community. … Yet it’s inconceivable to not discover that China is the most important and strongest participant locally and gives management.”
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The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced Xi’s December 12-13 visit to Vietnam on December 7, just weeks after Vietnam elevated its ties with the United States and Japan to comprehensive strategic partnerships, placing them on par with China in its diplomatic engagement. China views Japan and the U.S. as its rivals.
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VOA sent requests for comments to the Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Embassy in Hanoi, but there was no immediate response.
Alexander Vuving, a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, said in an interview with VOA Vietnamese in October that Xi was expected to push Vietnam to join China’s ‘community of common destiny’ to try to build a coalition to counter Washington.
“If Vietnam agrees to hitch China’s ‘group of frequent future,’ this is able to be touted as an improve of the present ‘complete strategic partnership of cooperation’ between China and Vietnam,” Vuving said in an email to VOA Vietnamese, adding that this “can be interpreted by China that Beijing is all the time nearer, or forward of, or above Washington in relations with Vietnam.”
Speaking to VOA Vietnamese from Hanoi this week, Nguyen Hong Quan, a former deputy director of the Institute of Defense Strategy under the Defense Ministry, also expected that Xi will officially invite Vietnam to join the community of common destiny.
Quan said he expected Vietnam to respond with a focus on pushing for the two countries to improve the effectiveness of several cooperation mechanisms, especially in trade, defense and security.
Nguyen Nhu Phong, a former Public Security Ministry colonel who is the former editor-in-chief of PetroTimes, expressed his skepticism about China’s community of common destiny.
‘From ancient times until now, China was and is a major power, but their behaviors are very mean,” with phrases and actions that do not match, Phong stated. “I don’t trust them,’
Phong cited recent news on China’s release of a new national map in August claiming sovereignty over parts of neighboring countries including Vietnam, India and Russia, and angering them.
‘China disregards the law, and a country that disregards the law and uses all sorts of tricks should not be trusted,” Phong stated. “Now, they are talking about ‘a community with a common destiny.’ And then, they will use it to blur the lines. And then, they can manipulate others to follow them. That is a deadly trap.’
Phong’s words resonate with the views expressed by many Vietnamese people on social media. Posters are saying that due to historical issues and current territorial and maritime disputes, they do not want their country to bond with China and that the two countries should only cooperate for mutual benefits in trade and economic affairs.
Vuving said Xi’s visit “will probably be a giant take a look at of Hanoi’s ‘bamboo’ diplomacy and its capacity to cope with China.”
Bamboo diplomacy, which has been pursued by party chief Nguyen Phu Trong, is Vietnam’s foreign policy, focusing on developing balanced relations with major powers and diversifying relationships with other countries.
“Vietnam can leverage the newly elevated ties with the U.S. to extract some concessions from China. But Vietnam may also maintain onto the ‘bamboo’ and bend to Chinese strain,” Vuving told VOA Vietnamese via email. “The future trajectory of China-Vietnam relations will rely upon whether or not or not Vietnam will probably be ready to withstand the Chinese push.”