TOKYO, May 13 (News On Japan) –
Greater Bay Airlines, which resumed common flights between Sendai and Hong Kong final December for the primary time in 13 years, at present operates 4 spherical journeys per week. However, beginning this week and persevering with by the tip of October, the airline will cut back that to 3 weekly spherical journeys as a consequence of declining journey demand. The variety of flights to Tokushima may even be reduce. What is behind this sudden downturn?
One trigger seems to be a Japanese manga. The newly launched full version of The Future I Saw, a comic book as soon as rumored to have predicted the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, has stirred hypothesis. In the story, a personality desires that the Pacific aspect of Japan is swallowed by a large tsunami in July. The manga has been broadly shared on-line, fueling fears.
Adding to the nervousness, a feng shui grasp in Hong Kong predicted—with out scientific foundation—{that a} main earthquake would hit Japan this summer season. As a outcome, a motion to keep away from touring to Japan has emerged in Hong Kong.
We requested Professor Mitsuru Fukuda from the College of Crisis Management at Nihon University to assist unpack the state of affairs.
“This is fiction, not a prophecy,” stated Fukuda. “From a scientific perspective, earthquakes cannot be predicted—neither in the short nor long term. They can only be evaluated statistically over time.”
According to Fukuda, Japan ceaselessly experiences typhoons and torrential rains in July, which implies disasters of some type are usually not unusual in the course of the summer season. If one interprets the manga vaguely, such expectations may align with any seasonal calamity. But Fukuda stresses that no scientific proof helps the thought of a large tsunami hitting the Pacific coast in July, because the manga suggests.
In Hong Kong, the comedian and the feng shui prediction have gained traction, significantly on social media platforms. As a outcome, precise demand for journey to Japan has decreased. In response, Greater Bay Airlines determined to scale back flights between Sendai, Tokushima, and Hong Kong by the tip of October.
Reporter Ozaki from the Shanghai bureau confirmed that considerations about Japan’s potential for a large-scale earthquake and tsunami have certainly unfold throughout on-line boards, with some folks selecting to cancel or postpone their journeys.
“There’s no scientific basis for these so-called predictions,” Fukuda emphasised. “The problem lies in how society reacts.”
Japan’s authorities has printed long-term threat assessments for a Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake, and emergency alerts have been issued final July and August. These actual considerations might contribute to heightened public nervousness, making folks extra prone to misinformation.
One such instance is the surge in bookings at a resort known as Misakaigetsu in Tokushima. The resort, situated on a mountaintop, is reportedly totally booked on July 4th—the day earlier than the date predicted within the manga. According to resort employees, that is extremely uncommon, and lots of the reservations are from locals. Some imagine persons are reserving rooms on greater floor to “evacuate” based mostly on the rumor.
“This kind of behavior has happened many times before,” stated Fukuda. “Every time, the media and social networks amplify the story, society becomes unsettled, and yet nothing happens. Then, people forget, and the cycle repeats.”
Last month, one other earthquake prediction circulated on-line. It claimed a serious quake would hit northern Tokyo Bay at exactly 2:58 p.m. on April twenty sixth. The rumor unfold so broadly that Japan’s Cabinet Office posted a message on its official X (previously Twitter) account two days earlier than the date, stating that specifying the precise time and placement of earthquakes is scientifically not possible.
“Even though most people know that earthquakes can’t be predicted, rumors still spread,” stated commentator Kihara.
In Hong Kong, the place feng shui is deeply rooted in tradition, many individuals are influenced by such beliefs. As a outcome, the fear-based motion grew to become extra intense than it may need been in Japan. Fukuda warns that rumors, when acted upon collectively, can create real-world penalties.
He cites previous circumstances, such because the 1973 bathroom paper panic in the course of the oil disaster. A rumor began by a housewife a couple of scarcity unfold so broadly that retailer cabinets have been emptied throughout Japan. Similarly, a joke amongst highschool ladies a couple of monetary establishment being harmful led to a financial institution run that pushed the establishment to the brink of collapse.
“There are many instances where people’s behavior, driven by a rumor, makes the prediction come true,” Fukuda famous. “That’s why how we respond to misinformation is critically important.”
The origin of a rumor can typically be traced by media investigations and educational analysis. During the COVID-19 pandemic, panic-buying of bathroom paper resurfaced, prompting news retailers to point out photos of well-stocked cabinets to keep away from triggering additional hoarding—an effort knowledgeable by classes from previous incidents.
But there have been darker moments in historical past. After the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake, a false rumor that “poison was poured into wells” led to mob violence and deaths. At that point, with no fashionable water infrastructure, such misinformation brought about panic and tragic penalties.
In newer reminiscence, after the Kumamoto Earthquake, a pretend picture of a lion allegedly escaping from a zoo went viral, highlighting how simply concern might be exploited throughout disasters.
“With the rise of social media, there are people who deliberately spread false information to gain views,” Fukuda warned.
Why do folks fall for such rumors? Fukuda explains that some are naturally drawn to prophecies and conspiracy theories. The manga The Prophecies of Nostradamus, printed in 1973, offered over 2.5 million copies in Japan. In the U.S., perception in a so-called “deep state” has fueled political conspiracy theories, amplified even by main figures like former President Donald Trump.
“It’s part occult, part cult-like thinking,” stated Fukuda. “Some people distrust the government and media and seek ‘hidden truths.’ These people are more vulnerable to conspiracy theories.”
One psychological issue is the “echo chamber” impact on social media. As customers comply with others with related beliefs, platforms suggest more and more related content material, reinforcing the notion that everybody shares the identical view. Fukuda famous that YouTube is a transparent instance—watching one video about earthquake predictions results in a stream of comparable content material, reinforcing perception.
“This creates an illusion of consensus,” stated Fukuda. “People should be aware that although the internet seems vast, it often narrows into small echo chambers.”
American psychologists Allport and Postman proposed a components for the way rumors unfold: the quantity of rumor equals its significance multiplied by its ambiguity. The July fifth catastrophe rumor is an ideal instance—its theme is critical and its supply, a fictional manga, is obscure. Together, these elements create ultimate circumstances for mass circulation.
A research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology discovered that false data spreads quicker on X (previously Twitter) than correct data. Fukuda stated this aligns with different findings and displays rising public mistrust in conventional establishments like authorities and media.
“In today’s world, it’s more important than ever to verify the source of any claim,” he stated. “Before posting or sharing anything, stop and check whether it’s true and whether it should be shared. This is what media literacy means.”
Schools and society should foster this type of essential considering. Even if it is laborious to vary every thing in a single day, simply pausing earlier than spreading data may help stop pointless panic.
Source: ABCTVnews