Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attends a welcoming ceremony held on the Imperial Palace throughout his state go to to Japan from May 26 to 29. /CFP
Editor’s observe: Ding Duo, a particular commentator on present affairs for CGTN, is the director of the Center for International and Regional Studies on the National Institute for South China Sea Studies. The article displays the creator’s opinions and never essentially the views of CGTN.
As Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visits Japan from May 26 to 29, the 2 international locations are anticipated to start formal talks on a General Security of Military Information Agreement, often known as GSOMIA. If signed, the pact would permit Japan and the Philippines to share labeled protection intelligence underneath tight safeguards to stop leaks to outsiders. It would additionally mark Japan’s first such take care of any Southeast Asian nation.
The discussions, led by Marcos and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, can even cowl joint army workouts, logistics assist and modernizing Philippine forces by radar programs and coaching. Security, particularly within the South China Sea, tops the agenda. Marcos has already signaled that gray-zone techniques, comparable to water cannon incidents, vessel blocking and maritime militia swarming, will characteristic prominently within the talks. These points have grow to be routine flashpoints, and each leaders seem to see the GSOMIA as a sensible instrument to handle them extra successfully.
At first look, the transfer might look like customary regional protection cooperation. Japan joined Philippine drills this yr, and either side discuss of higher interoperability. Yet beneath the floor lies a broader story of shifting alliances.
Although the United States has adjusted its insurance policies towards allies and companions and total US-China ties have grown extra secure, the military-security cooperation promoted at US-Japan-Philippines summits just a few years in the past nonetheless carries robust coverage momentum. What is hanging now, nevertheless, is the rising initiative from Japan and the Philippines themselves.
Their eagerness displays actual anxieties. Both international locations seem involved in regards to the reliability of American safety guarantees and the potential of future shifts in US overseas coverage. They are hedging their bets by constructing tighter bonds which may survive Washington’s altering priorities. This rising self-reliance suggests how companions as soon as content material to comply with US management are actually stepping ahead on their very own, pushed by doubts that American commitments will stay rock-solid in each future disaster.
Should the Japan-Philippines GSOMIA be formalized, the regional safety image might change additional. The United States already has intelligence-sharing pacts with each Manila and Tokyo. Adding this new settlement would create a closed-loop system among the many three international locations. Sensitive knowledge would flow into solely throughout the group, forming an unique safety circle.
Such an association runs counter to what most international locations in Southeast Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific need. They search peaceable improvement, open commerce and inclusive dialogue fairly than secretive blocs that would deepen distrust and complicate efforts at regional cooperation by multilateral boards like ASEAN.
Meanwhile, Japan clearly has its personal agenda. On a tactical stage, nearer army ties with the Philippines permits Tokyo to strain China throughout a number of theaters. By linking cooperation within the South China Sea with considerations within the East China Sea and round China’s Taiwan area, Japan seems intent on making a “three seas linkage” that stretches Chinese consideration and complicates Beijing’s strikes.
Strategically, the partnership serves a bigger function. It provides Japan so-called sensible causes to loosen postwar limits on its armed forces, increase protection spending and have interaction extra freely abroad. In this manner, the deal may result in reviving parts of militarism underneath a contemporary label, advancing Tokyo’s aim of turning into what it describes as a “normal country with full military power.”
A Japan Air Self-Defense Force officer locations a Japanese nationwide flag close to an statement submit at a Philippine naval facility throughout their annual joint army drills in Zambales, the Philippines, April 28, 2026. /CFP
These developments warrant shut consideration from the worldwide neighborhood. A extra assertive Japan, free of previous restraints and supported by selective alliances, dangers turning into a brand new supply of instability in East Asia fairly than a contributor to lasting peace. History reminds us how shortly such ambitions can unsettle the area.
For the Philippines, this technique carries painful irony. Marcos sees deeper ties with Japan as a method to achieve confidence in confronting China over the South China Sea claims. External backing does give Manila extra room to push again. Yet this selection overlooks historical past.
Only a long time in the past, the Philippines suffered enormously underneath Japanese wartime occupation and militarist aggression. The scars stay embedded within the nation’s nationwide reminiscence. Yet as we speak, Philippine leaders seem more and more keen to set that apart for short-term achieve.
By strengthening army hyperlinks with Tokyo, Manila helps Japan transfer towards renewed army independence. In impact, the Philippines is providing itself as a stepping stone for what some name Japan’s “new militarism.” Such short-sightedness is hanging. It reveals how Philippine politicians are prioritizing fast tactical benefit over long-term knowledge and regional stability, turning a blind eye to the very historical past that when outlined their nation’s battle towards overseas domination.
Whatever narratives are spun in regards to the South China Sea, constructing more and more unique intelligence golf equipment and trilateral army ties is a slim reply. Instead, such efforts danger locking the area into deeper cycles of suspicion fairly than opening paths to calm dialogue.
As Marcos and Takaichi meet, the world ought to carefully study whether or not these steps really serve peace or just redraw traces of confrontation. Japan’s calculated strikes and the Philippines’ historic forgetfulness each deserve cautious scrutiny. In an already tense Asia-Pacific, including one other layer of secretive safety cooperation might ease as we speak’s worries however plant seeds for tomorrow’s troubles. Real safety comes from mutual understanding, not partitions of labeled info that hold neighbors aside.
(If you wish to contribute and have particular experience, please contact us at [email protected]. Follow @thouse_opinions on X, previously Twitter, to find the most recent commentaries within the CGTN Opinion Section.)
Source: CGTN