Tariff payments throughout U.S. states mount as affordability and Trump head for midterm elections showdown

New evaluation of U.S. Census information reveals that states throughout the U.S. the place key midterm elections will happen this 12 months paid over $134 billion in tariffs within the interval since President Donald Trump started implementing widespread commerce duties in March 2025 by way of final November. In all, the U.S. Census information compiled by Trade Partnership Worldwide confirmed a complete of $199 billion in tariffs paid by states throughout that point interval.

Trump has referred to as affordability a “Democratic hoax,” and in current testimony earlier than Congress, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned the tariffs “do not cause inflation.”

Tariff income collected by the federal authorities has surged, with the U.S. bringing in $30 billion in customs duties in January, and a year-to-date tally of $124 billion, up 304% from the identical interval in 2025.

But Trump’s tariffs and affordability are anticipated to be elements within the upcoming midterm election cycle. Recent CNBC survey information from the American shopper and pricing information present that the affordability points are actual and many citizens have soured on the financial system. A January ballot from The New York Times and Siena University discovered that 54% of voters oppose Trump’s tariffs. Some members of the GOP are beginning to break with their leaders over the tariffs subject, becoming a member of Democrats on Tuesday in a vote to defeat a rule that might have prohibited the House from difficult tariffs issued by Trump. The House is anticipated to vote Wednesday on a measure to overturn Trump’s tariffs on Canada launched by Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y.

“Americans struggling with affordability rightly blame tariffs for higher prices on many everyday purchases,” mentioned Dan Anthony, government director of the We Pay the Tariffs small enterprise coalition and president of Trade Partnership Worldwide. “The president could eliminate tens of billions in taxes in the states that will determine the 2026 elections. He just doesn’t want to,” Anthony mentioned.

Top states and tariff payments

• California: $38 billion
• Texas: $21 billion
• Michigan: $13 billion
• Georgia: $12 billion
• Illinois: $9.6 billion
• Ohio: $6.5 billion
• Pennsylvania: $6.3 billion
• North Carolina: $5 billion
• South Carolina: $5.2 billion
• Kentucky: $4 billion

This 12 months, all 435 districts within the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 seats within the U.S. Senate are up for election. The Republicans maintain slim majorities in each chambers of Congress. Democrats want to realize 4 seats to win a majority within the Senate. To maintain management of the House, the Republican Party can not afford to lose greater than two seats.

Midterm elections major season begins March 3 with voters heading to the polls in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas.

Small companies throughout America hit laborious by tariffs

Small enterprise homeowners throughout U.S. states are talking out in regards to the influence the tariffs have had on their companies, some as a part of a brand new YouTube video-led marketing campaign referred to as Small Businesses Against Tariffs that launched on Wednesday in an effort to lift consciousness.

Many small companies are looking for to counter rhetoric about tariffs being paid by different firms relatively than on Main Street, in addition to the concept tariffs are being paid again to Americans, making their case on how tariffs truly work and who pays the worth — of their view, American small companies, staff, and customers.

Chris Gibbs, a Shelby County, Ohio, farmer of corn, soybeans, wheat, alfalfa hay, and a 90-head cow-calf operation, mentioned the tariffs have hit him two-fold. “My operating costs are soaring,” mentioned Gibbs. “Tariffs on steel, aluminum and lumber raised the cost on anything I do. From building buildings, barns, buying machinery, trailers, wheels, and parts, and even my fertilizer,” he mentioned.

Gibbs mentioned the commerce warfare has additionally impacted his capacity to promote his crops.

“In 2018, this president destroyed trade relationships, and at that moment, just like Carter in 1980 with the Russian embargo, we became an unreliable supplier. This is where we’re at, and we have not recovered,” Gibbs mentioned. “Brazil is now the lead supplier of soybeans to China. Trump pushed President Xi into the arms of Brazil and they never left.”

Promised agricultural buys have been a giant a part of the primary commerce warfare between the U.S. and China. China failed to satisfy its obligation in agricultural purchases. In 2025, China promised to extend orders, however commerce information present there was no important pickup.

Noel Hacegaba, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, instructed CNBC it noticed a 95% decline year-over-year in soybean exports to China.

“China is now consuming most of its soybeans from places like Brazil,” mentioned Hacegaba. “The United States produces about 20 percent of the world’s soybeans. Brazil is now at 40 percent, largely in part because China shifting its buys to Brazil. We’re doing everything that we can as a major export gateway to help our exporters move their product more efficiently, but we need certainty and clarity on trade policy to make sure that that product can move,” he mentioned.

Gibbs mentioned the tariff support Trump has promised to farmers is a slap within the face to all farmers and Americans. “If these checks ever do come, it is money paid I spent on the tariffs as well as all American consumers,” Gibbs mentioned.

At Saline, Michigan-based Hiblow USA, which focuses on linear air pumps for wastewater therapy and septic aerators used broadly throughout the U.S. on residential wastewater therapy methods serving rural and suburban houses, the corporate’s tariff invoice reached $1.2 million in 2025. Tim Smith, president, mentioned the uncertainty in regards to the longevity of the tariffs has compelled him to cease growth plans. The southeast Michigan firm has 10 workers, and the extra location would have created three to 4 new jobs. “We are a small business, and while some may think it’s not a lot of jobs, they are good-paying jobs,” mentioned Smith.

“We have only passed on 40 percent of our costs to customers,” Smith mentioned. “It has become a competitive battle between companies to see who can hold out and burn through more cash and absorb these tariffs. But I think no one can keep holding out and absorb the tariffs over the long-term,” he added.

The firm imports its product from the Philippines. The nation has but to strike a deal on tariffs with the U.S. although on Monday, a 19% tariff on Philippine items was mentioned in Manila by representatives for the international locations.

Smith mentioned altering tariff charges have additionally put further pressure on his customs brokers. “We had to renew our Customs bonds two or three times, because we needed to add more funds to the bonds,” mentioned Smith. “That delayed us from getting some of our containers, because the bond was in limbo. You can’t process anything without your Customs bonds.”

Customs bonds, also called surety bonds, present protection to importers guaranteeing the fee of duties and taxes levied on imported items. The worth of those bonds and associated collateral has soared alongside the steepening tariffs levied by the Trump administration. If a bond has inadequate funds, the importer can not take possession of their freight.

Even if the Supreme Court guidelines that a lot of Trump’s tariffs are unlawful and requires refunds paid to companies, with a choice attainable on Feb. 20, Smith says he is aware of that the Trump administration has one other set of tariffs ready, so there will probably be no money movement aid.

“We have always gotten our money refunded through Customs with no problem,” Smith mentioned. “Sometimes it took up to a year, but there certainly is a framework there to do so. But what I can tell you is we are certainly not making any business plans based on a ruling that we could get our money back. There are more tariffs on the way if they are ruled illegal.”

In New York, toy retailer proprietor Jennifer Bergman closed her West Side Kids, which was based by her mom, after 44 years of operation due to the tariffs. “The majority of our toys are manufactured in China, so the tariff costs took over our business,” mentioned Bergman. “We were constantly getting emails from our vendors on price increases, and as a result, we had to increase our prices.”

One instance was her scooter orders. Bergman mentioned the enterprise usually bought $50,000 in scooters yearly. After the tariffs, she did not have a scooter priced below $200, which not solely impacted her gross sales however her inventories. “Scooter prices went up $30,” Bergman mentioned. “I got a phone call from my scooter company, and they told me they were rerouting their containers to Canada because of the tariffs, and they were no longer bringing them in until the tariffs were lower,” she added.

At the top of May, Bergman mentioned she began taking a look at her numbers and realized she wouldn’t have the ability to make July hire. “June was typically one of my busiest months … but June was just deadly. I couldn’t afford the inventory to sell. I called my landlord, and luckily, we had a 44-year-old relationship with my landlord, and I said, I have to close.”

Bergman’s retailer closed on the finish of July.

In Tempe, Arizona, Brick Road Coffee opened through the pandemic in 2021. Gabe Hagen, co-founder and CEO of the espresso store and roasting firm, mentioned he’s grateful now that the tariffs on espresso have been eradicated, however he nonetheless has espresso on the larger tariff worth.

“We order 4,000 pounds of coffee monthly, primarily for two shops, and face increased costs due to tariffs on green coffee and other supplies,” mentioned Hagen. “Despite absorbing costs at the coffee shop, unfortunately for our roasting business, we had to raise prices.”

Before the tariffs, Hagen mentioned wholesale clients have been paying round $10 a pound for roasted espresso beans. Now, clients are paying round $13.50 a pound, and he hopes it has peaked.

Coffee tariffs have seen important, speedy shifts. Initial 10%–50% duties ranged from the upper finish on Brazil (50 p.c), to decrease tariffs on India (25 p.c), Vietnam (20 p.c), and Indonesia (19 p.c).

In a November 2025 government order, most of those tariffs, together with these on Brazil, have been eliminated, however Hagen mentioned the tariffs have created lingering results. His firm has mitigated tariff bills by delaying retailer growth and buying roasting tools earlier than the tariffs went into impact. “We were going into a time where cash is going to be king, and as a small business, I just don’t have a ton of it,” Hagen mentioned. “So I had to cut to try to preserve and give me the longest runway possible to navigate the uncertainty.”

Hagen says customers are weakened based mostly on his firm’s gross sales exercise. “We are seeing our average ticket go down,” he mentioned. “Even though our foot traffic is staying relatively stable year over year, our gross is actually lower year over year. Consumers are tightening their wallets, and they are not buying the add-ons like the muffins. Our Q4 was terrible. It was the worst in the four years that we have been open,” he mentioned.

Peter Boockvar, chief funding officer of One Point BFG Wealth Partners, says the “PTSD from the prior spike in inflation has flared up again. And if not fully passed on to consumers, businesses have absorbed it through lower profit margins. … The tariff pain is real, just ask any business and/or consumer. Inflation is the main economic pain point so I think it definitely will be a key issue.”