Russia docked warships in Bangladesh for the primary time in 5 a long time earlier this month and held its first joint naval workouts with Myanmar as Moscow eyes a better function within the Indian Ocean area and appears to bolster ties with smaller nations in Asia.
Analysts say India will not be averse to Russia, its outdated ally and largest provider of protection tools, stepping up its presence in its maritime neighborhood regardless of New Delhi’s deepening partnership with the United States, Japan and Australia to counter China’s increasing footprint within the strategic waters.
Ignoring strain from its Western companions, New Delhi has maintained its decades-long relationship with Moscow and brought a impartial stand on the battle in Ukraine.
“India has been keen for Russia to play a more active role in the Indo-Pacific because it suits New Delhi’s larger strategic goal of what it calls a multipolar global order. New Delhi believes a multipolar Asia is key to building a multipolar world,” Praveen Donthi, Senior Analyst, India, on the International Crisis Group, advised VOA. “So far it has shown skill in navigating such strategic dilemmas, for instance on the Ukraine war.”
Russia’s Defense Ministry referred to as the naval drills held with Myanmar within the Andaman Sea from November 7 to 9 “the first Russian-Myanmar naval exercise in modern history.” Two anti-submarine ships, Admiral Tributs and Admiral Panteleyev of the Russian Pacific Fleet, participated within the workouts with a frigate and a corvette from Myanmar’s navy.
Days after the Myanmar drills, the identical Russian warships docked at Bangladesh’s Chittagong Port within the Bay of Bengal – the primary such go to in 50 years. The Russian embassy in Dhaka referred to as it a ‘big milestone for Russia-Bangladesh relations.’
Russia additionally carried out two-day naval drills with India within the Bay of Bengal final week to “strengthen naval cooperation,” in line with Russia’s Defense Ministry.
“While it may seem odd for India to welcome the presence of foreign militaries in nearby waters, India won’t view Russian naval power with the same concern it would that of China,” stated Michael Kugelman, Director, South Asia Institute at The Wilson Center in Washington. “India likely views this Russian presence as something that can balance out Chinese naval power in the region, making the latter less of a threat to New Delhi.’
Analysts point out that China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean in countries like Sri Lanka and Myanmar over the last decade has emerged as a major strategic headache for New Delhi, which has been engaged in a bitter military standoff with Beijing along their Himalayan border since 2020. In Sri Lanka for example, where Beijing has built the Hambantota port close to India, two Chinese research vessels that India sees as “spy ships” have docked since August last year.
Since the military junta in Myanmar seized power in 2021, Moscow’s cooperation with it has been growing and Russia is now the second largest supplier of arms to Myanmar. The country is also a key market for other Russian exports.
Russia and Dhaka have traditionally had close ties and as Bangladesh’s government comes under pressure from the United States over its human rights record, it could draw closer to Moscow. Russia is building the country’s first nuclear power plant.
“Russia is making an attempt to exhibit to the West that even in the event you attempt to isolate us, we’ve got our supporters within the Global South and in Asia or Africa, we aren’t seen as pariahs or a rustic to be shunned. So that’s the diplomatic message that they’re giving,” pointed out Sankalp Gurjar, Assistant Professor in Geopolitics and International Relations at the Manipal Academy of Higher Education.
Analysts say the appearance of Russian warships in the Indian Ocean is also motivated by its goal to be present in all “main theaters” of the world.
“The Indian Ocean has develop into the principle theatre for the nice energy rivalry between the US and China. And Moscow want to improve its strategic presence within the area by deepening its ties with nations within the area comparable to Myanmar and play a consequential function,” according to Donthi.
Other analysts agree. “It’s necessary for Russia to point out its continued capability to venture energy, particularly removed from dwelling. Doing so within the Indian Ocean area, the place its companion China has additionally been more and more current, is an added benefit for Moscow,” Kugelman said.
However, Russia’s foray into the Indian Ocean also poses a strategic dilemma for India as Moscow has been moving close to India’s bitter rival, China, since its invasion of Ukraine. That is why New Delhi will watch carefully to see what role Moscow wants to play in the Indian Ocean, which it has long viewed as its sphere of influence.
“So far, it appears Moscow merely desires to mark its presence within the jap a part of the Indian Ocean,” according to Gurjar. “However, concern arises from the truth that China’s and Russia’s naval collaboration has been deepening. In the Western Pacific for instance, each nations have been holding joint workouts and each have been assertive of their posture. If that form of collaboration will get prolonged to the Indian Ocean, that will current a problem for India,” he stated.