TOKYO, Feb 12 (News On Japan) –
The so-called ‘Reiwa Rice Crisis’ that emerged final summer time continues to impression Japan. The authorities initially predicted that rice costs would stabilize as soon as the brand new harvest entered the market, however as of February eleventh, costs stay excessive. In some supermarkets, the worth of a 5kg bag of rice has surged by 700 to 800 yen.
In response, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) has introduced plans to launch a portion of the nation’s reserve rice below sure circumstances, citing provide bottlenecks as the first cause for the extended value surge. But will this measure really convey rice costs down? What amount and harvest years of rice shall be launched? To discover these questions, we flip to the insights of agricultural economist Shinjo Ogawa, an assistant professor at Utsunomiya University.
Prices Keep Rising Despite New Harvests
Consumers throughout Japan have been feeling the impression of excessive rice costs. The situation first gained consideration final summer time when issues over rice shortages led to what grew to become generally known as the ‘Reiwa Rice Crisis.’ At the time, specialists, together with Ogawa, anticipated costs to stabilize as soon as newly harvested rice entered the market within the fall. However, opposite to those expectations, costs have solely continued to climb.
MAFF has now shifted its method, opting to launch a part of the nationwide rice reserves. But will this really result in decrease costs? This query is ready to be answered later this week when the federal government formally proclaims the main points of the discharge.
In the background, issues are rising over Japan’s broader rice coverage, with some arguing that the present system is reaching its limits. The debate over a basic evaluation of rice coverage has already begun.
Why Are Rice Prices Still Rising?
Despite a rise in home rice provide in comparison with final yr, costs stay excessive. Supermarkets in Osaka report that rice costs have surged for the reason that begin of the yr, with some manufacturers seeing will increase of 700 to 800 yen per 5kg bag.
Consumers are fighting the rising prices. One shopper expressed frustration, saying, “I feel bad buying rice at these prices. It’s just too expensive.” Another famous, “Domestic rice is so costly that imported options are starting to look more attractive.”
So why is the worth nonetheless rising regardless of ample provide? According to MAFF, provide chain disruptions are guilty. The ministry has recognized distribution bottlenecks as a significant component and has due to this fact determined to launch rice from authorities reserves.
Normally, these reserves are meant to be used throughout emergencies, equivalent to poor harvests or pure disasters. However, the federal government has now accredited their launch below a brand new situation—any rice taken from the reserves have to be repurchased inside a yr.
Expert Skepticism Over Government Measures
While the federal government hopes this measure will ease the market, some agricultural economists are skeptical. Ogawa warns that the transfer could not have the meant impact. “Releasing reserve rice might not necessarily lower prices,” he mentioned. “In fact, in some cases, holding off on releasing rice could have led to price stabilization.”
The key situation is stability—releasing too little rice could haven’t any impact, whereas releasing an excessive amount of may trigger costs to plummet, hurting farmers. Moreover, business gamers can monitor authorities actions and modify their very own rice shares accordingly, probably limiting the impression of the coverage.
Another main problem is {that a} rising variety of wholesalers and retailers are holding again their rice provides, anticipating additional value will increase. Some business gamers consider that demand will rise forward of main occasions, such because the Osaka Expo, and are due to this fact reluctant to launch their shares now.
Why Does Japan’s Rice Policy Need Reform?
Japan’s rice manufacturing has lengthy been formed by authorities insurance policies designed to stabilize costs and shield farmers. Over the many years, rice consumption has declined by half in comparison with its peak, resulting in reductions in cultivated acreage. In response, the federal government has been offering subsidies to encourage farmers to develop various crops as an alternative of rice.
Currently, Japan spends practically 300 billion yen yearly on these subsidies, however this coverage has its critics. Some argue that authorities intervention is artificially inflating rice costs, forcing shoppers to pay extra whereas additionally rising the tax burden.
One of the extra controversial guidelines in place is the ‘five-year water rule,’ which requires farmers rising various crops on former rice paddies to flood their fields with water not less than as soon as each 5 years. The rule is meant to forestall subsidy fraud however has been criticized as an pointless burden on farmers.
A Turning Point for Rice Policy?
While the deliberate launch of reserve rice has attracted vital media consideration, a extra basic shift could also be on the horizon. On January thirty first, the federal government quietly introduced its intention to evaluation rice coverage from the bottom up. Discussions are set to start in April, with new insurance policies anticipated to be launched by 2027.
The objective of those discussions shall be to discover a higher stability between supporting farmers and making certain inexpensive rice costs for shoppers. With Japan’s agricultural sector going through long-term challenges, these reforms may symbolize a crucial turning level.
The authorities now faces troublesome choices. If rice costs stay too excessive, shoppers could flip to cheaper imported rice, weakening home manufacturing. On the opposite hand, drastic value drops may harm farmers. As Japan strikes ahead with its coverage evaluation, all eyes shall be on how the federal government navigates these trade-offs.
The coming months shall be essential in figuring out the way forward for Japan’s rice business.
Source: MBS